An analysis of objective inflation expectations and inflation risk premia
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Abstract
We study euro-area risk-adjusted expected inflation and the inflation risk premium at different maturities, leveraging inflation swaps, inflation options and survey-based forecasts. We introduce a model that features time-varying long-term average inflation and time-varying inflation volatility and we anchor market-based risk-adjusted measures of expected inflation to survey-based inflation forecasts. The results show that medium-term risk-adjusted expected inflation was close to the ECB's aim from 2010 to mid-2014, has since fallen to a low in March 2020 and has risen significantly since the second half of 2021. The medium-term inflation risk premium was positive until 2014 and turned negative since 2015 despite a sharp rise at the end of 2021. The risk-adjusted probabilities of exceeding the ECB's inflation aim and of seeing deflation over the medium term have been low on average. JEL Classification: C22, C58, G12, E31, E44.