Sentiments on the economy : how economic news affects collective economic expectations and behaviour
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Abstract
Abstract Dissertation Juliane A. Lischka, HS 2014, Universitat Zurich Abstract This cumulative dissertation relates three core objects of investigation within mass communication research by means of the economy. a) Economic news: News topics, tone, consonance, and volume; b) Economic sentiment: Evaluations and expectations for the economic situation of the general public and economic experts; c) Economic behavior: Purchase intention, sales and corporate advertising expenditures. Economic news not only reports on the economy but can also influence its development, since the public as well as corporate sentiment and behavior are the link between economic news and the real‐world economy. Citizens who make well‐informed economic decisions are critical for an economy. Economic sentiments of private and corporate decision makers influence entrepreneurial behavior, such as investment behavior. Advertising expenditures are part of the marketing investments of a company and in turn are essential for the funding of media systems. The research objective of this dissertation is to assess the relations between economic news, economic sentiment, and economic behavior, based on the following research questions. RQ 1. How closely is economic news related to the real‐world economy? Economic news relates to real‐world indicators but is no copy of the aggregate economy. A stable relation found between real‐world economy and news is that news reports more consistently after negative and less consistently after positive economic changes. Revenue incentives and organizational influences explain differences of news in level among private and between private and public service outlets. Trend changes are stimulated by real‐world events. RQ 2. How strongly does economic news influence both the public and expert economic sentiment? The public economic sentiment depends more strongly on real‐world cues than on economic news. News does not have the power to shift public economic expectations without the “support” from real‐world experiences. But economic experts rely on news when they evaluate private consumption. Experts may presume that news affects the public’s behavior. RQ 3. Does economic news influence private and corporate economic behavior? Although the public makes correct assumptions about developments in the national economy, economic news or expectations barely affect intentional economic behavior of the public. However, corporate advertising decision makers may presume that private consumption is geared by economic news and adapt advertising activity to their presumptions. To conclude, economic news reports in a volatile manner on the economy but barely influences its development. Public economic sentiment is sometimes, but economic behavior is no result of economic news. Although bad economic news does not cause a decrease in private purchase intention, bad news may lead to a change in corporate advertising expenditures, which can result in a decline in advertising income for media companies. Corporate decision makers may presume public behavior through implicit news cues. Therefore, economic news tone to some degree translates “into entrepreneurial decisions, particularly investments” (Noelle‐Neumann 1987, p. 292) but hardly into private economic decisions. Abstract Dissertation Juliane A. Lischka, HS 2014, Universitat Zurich Diese kumulative Dissertation verknupft drei zentrale Untersuchungsobjekte der Kommunikationswissenschaft am Beispiel der Wirtschaft: a) Wirtschaftsberichterstattung: Artikelthemen, Tonalitat, Konsonanz und Umfang; b) Wirtschaftserwartungen: Bewertungen und Erwartungen zur Wirtschaftslage der Bevolkerung und Wirtschaftsexperten; c) Wirtschaftsverhalten: Kaufintention, Umsatz und unternehmerische Werbeausgaben. Wirtschaftsnachrichten berichten nicht nur uber die Wirtschaftslage, sondern konnen auch ihren Verlauf beeinflussen, da Bevolkerungs‐ sowie Unternehmererwartungen und ‐verhalten die Verbindung zwischen Wirtschaftsberichterstattung und realer Wirtschaftslage darstellen. Burgerinnen und Burger, die gut informierte okonomische Entscheidungen treffen, sind essenziell fur die Gesellschaft. Wirtschaftserwartungen der Bevolkerung und der unternehmerischen Entscheider beeinflussen unternehmerisches Investitionsverhalten. Werbeausgaben, die in enger Verbindung mit privatem Konsum stehen und Teil von Marketinginvestitionen eines Unternehmens sind, stellen wiederum eine wesentliche Finanzierungsgrundlage fur Mediensysteme dar. Die Ergebnisse der Dissertation zeigen, dass Wirtschaftsberichterstattung in volatiler Art und Weise uber die Wirtschaftslage informiert, aber die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung kaum beeinflusst. Wirtschaftserwartungen der Bevolkerung konnen teilweise, aber ihr Wirtschaftsverhalten kann nicht von Wirtschaftsberichterstattung vorhergesagt werden. Obwohl negative Wirtschaftsnachrichten keinen Ruckgang der privaten Kaufintention zur Folge haben, konnten negative Wirtschaftsnachrichten die Hohe von unternehmerischen Werbeausgaben verandern, was zu einem Ruckgang der Werbeeinamen auf Seiten von Medienunternehmen fuhrt. Unternehmerische Entscheider vermuten auf Grundlage von Wirtschaftsberichterstattung wie sich die Bevolkerung verhalten wird. Daher ubertragt sich Wirtschaftsberichterstattung zwar zu einem gewissen Grad “into entrepreneurial decisions, particularly investments” (Noelle‐Neumann 1987, S. 292) aber kaum auf private Wirtschaftsentscheidungen. References Noelle‐Neumann, Elisabeth (1987), “The public as a prophet. Findings from continuous survey research and their importance for early diagnostics of economic growth,” in The 40th ESOMAR Marketing Research Congress, Montreux, 13th‐17th September 1987, ESOMAR, ed., Amsterdam: ESOMAR, European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research, 279–96.