Competition between unemployed and non-participants, and unemployment hysteresis

Abstract

This paper considers labour supply and demand shocks in a simple flow model of the labour market. We explicitly model the propagation of shocks and the adjustment mechanisms. By way of simulations we explore the extent of labour market hysteresis arising from negative duration dependence and the so-called entitlement effect that arises when social security provisions become more generous. The main findings of our modelling exercise are: (i) the extent of hysteresis depends very much on the way labour demand reacts to labour supply, (ii) negative duration dependence adds to unemployment hysteresis, and, (iii) the degree of hysteresis depends on the type of the shock.