Developing nations, drones and deterrence: Unmanned aerial vehicles and small nuclear powers

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Abstract

Abstract Ensuring the survivability of second-strike nuclear forces is critical for strategic stability, yet some scholars contend that technological changes in surveillance by established nuclear powers are reducing their survivability in a new era of counterforce. What are the implications of the proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on deterrence between small nuclear powers (SNPs)? Would these systems allow SNPs to appreciably increase their confidence in counterforce targeting? This article examines developments in the India–Pakistan dyad to consider how the proliferation of UAVs to SNPs might alter the decision calculus regarding preemptive strikes.