Measuring Uncertainty in Forensic Science
From the traditional fingerprint comparison to the latest advances in forensic DNA analysis, the advantages and drawbacks of various ways of reporting forensic science results are discussed.
Abstract
This paper aims at describing the ways in which uncertainty is (or is not) measured in the field of forensic science and how the measure of uncertainty can be used to make better judicial decisions. From the traditional fingerprint comparison to the latest advances in forensic DNA analysis, we discuss the advantages and drawbacks of various ways of reporting forensic science results. We point to past and current controversies, and analyze what remains to be done in the field to ensure that the probative value of forensic science evidence is communicated to judicial fact finders in a way that is scientifically robust, balanced and transparent, to allow them to make coherent decisions.