Top Research Papers on Inflation

This datasheet on Potamilus inflatus covers Identity, Distribution.

The invention relates to a trip device for an inflator (60) for inflation of inflatable floating bodies (90) which together with the inflator (60) in a container (70) are accommodated with a container wall (71), wherein the trigger device comprises a to the inflator (60) coupled and these activating operating head (10) and the triggering device has a locking device, which locks the activation of the inflator (60) when the container (70) is higher acting from the outside ambient pressure than a predetermined limit pressure, wherein in the container wall (71) comprises a tank passage (30) is arr...

Many central banks conduct monetary policy according to an inflation-targeting framework. Central to such a framework is the principle that monetary policy decisions are formulated in the context of an explicitly announced numerical target or range for some measure of inflation. Obviously, if an inflation-targeting framework is to be operational, then the important question of what measure of inflation to target cannot be avoided. There is unlikely to be a single answer to the question of which measure is best. And, indeed, inflation-targeting countries have varied significantly in the measure...

Inflation expectations play a crucial role in monetary policy making. Not only do they tell policymakers something about the real expected cost of borrowing and hence the viability of investment plans, they also help policymakers gauge the public?s perception of the central bank’s commitment to maintaining a low and stable rate of inflation. Especially in the current policy environment, where the Fed has been forced by events to take unconventional actions, it is more important than ever to make sure that long-run inflation expectations are well anchored and that the policy message is well und...

This article examines whether higher inflation has been associated with greater inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom during the post-war period, using various descriptive and econometric estimates of uncertainty. Though the results cannot establish conclusively whether there has been a causal link, they do suggest that the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty are positively correlated. If inflation uncertainty is costly, this provides a potential justification for directing policy at establishing and sustaining an environment of low inflation.

A scenario of leptogenesis was introduced in [1] which works during inflationary period within standard model of particle physics setup. In this scenario lepton number is created by the gravitational chiral anomaly which has a non-zero expectation value for models of inflation driven by pseudoscalar field(s). Here, we observe that models of inflation involving non-Abelian gauge fields, e.g. the chromo-natural inflation [2] or the gauge-flation [3], have a parity-violating tensor mode (graviton) spectrum and naturally lead to a non-vanishing expectation value for the gravitational chiral anomal...

Rational choice explanations for educational inequality have seen a renewed interest since Commented out Element Breen and Goldthorpe (1997) formulated the relative risk aversion (RRA) mechanism: people make educational choices to avoid downward mobility. Despite recent progress in empirical tests of this mechanism, mostly hypotheses are tested that could easily follow from other (e.g. cultural) theories in the field. In this paper a new way of testing the RRA mechanism is proposed, in which the changing value of qualifications plays a central role. Following the basic assumption of minimizing...

The paper describes inflation targeting, and tries to emphasize a difference between the theory and the practice. The strategy is highly demanding of information, and thus hard to implement reasonably in practice. Flexible inflation targeting doesn't fix inflation expectations. Its global application is dubious too. Inflation targeting is not suitable for transitive economies since there cannot be satisfactory long-run prediction model at the disposal of the central bank.

The major factors, affecting the inflation in Iran and relation between inflation and inflation uncertainty are studied. In this contribution, two different theoretical view points (Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses) are studied and finally by help of general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, a unidirectional relationship from inflation to inflation uncertainty or vise versa and the possibility of a bilateral relationship between these two variables in economics of Iran, have been analyzed for the period of 1989-2003. The results show a unidirectional relationsh...

Volume 2 of A History of the Federal Reserve (forthcoming) covers the years of inflation and disinflation, followed by a return to relatively low inflation. It addresses four questions: Why did inflation start? Why did it continue for 15 or more years, from 1965 to about 1982? Why did it end? Why did it not return? As we look back to the 1950s and 1960s, two of the many changes in the Federal Reserve System affecting inflation deserve comment. First, in the 1950s, the goal was price stability and zero reported inflation, not inflation of about 2 percent. The 1959-1960 disinflation brought repo...

How should monetary policy deal with the so-called ‘direct’ exchange rate pass-through, given that the impact on CPI inflation typically occurs relatively quickly, but the impact of a monetary policy response occurs much more slowly? For example, were the exchange rate to depreciate suddenly today, CPI inflation may rise in the very near-term. If, in response, interest rates were raised, the impact of tighter monetary policy would not be felt until some time after the initial inflationary impulse, by which time that impulse may have dissipated, making the initial monetary policy response unnec...

An inflator as well as a method of manufacturing an inflator, a module including an inflator and an airbag module. In an inflator, especially for a protective device in a vehicle, comprising plural components a sealant is applied in the area of abutting components, especially a sealant which adheres to both abutting components.

The present invention provides an inflatable article for repair kit and inflatable to the inflatable article (1), comprising: a compressor unit (C); a fluid sealant comprising a container unit (3); and a means for the a compressor unit (C) is connected to the container unit (3) of the fluid line (34, 68). Kit (1) further comprises a first check valve (60) along a fluid line (34, 68) is placed; pipe (66), said conduit (66) in the compressor unit (C) and a first one-way valve between (60) is connected to a first fluid conduit (34, 68); and a second check valve for (70) closes the pipe (66); a fi...

This project postulates that an additional cost of increased inflation is an increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of household-level inflation rates. Using scanner data and the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I construct novel measures of household-level inflation and show that households experience inflation at very different rates. An increase in a household's personal inflation rate leads to a persistent increase in their price index. Households respond to a personal inflation shock by decreasing nominal consumption, which means that real consumption falls more than one-for-one; poor hou...

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB’s UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but ...

ABSTRACT The study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model. Particularly, this link is investigated in China’s urban and rural sectors, motivated by the substantial urban–rural divide. The results provide strong statistical supportive evidence that higher inflation raises inflation uncertainty. On the other hand, evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is mixed depending on the sample periods and areas examined. The understanding of inflation-uncertainty nexus in Ch...

Random fields regression model,a battery of tests for neglected nonlinearity based on the theory of random fields,Bayesian Estimation were combined to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China since January 1990.The results show that the relationship between two variables is an asymmetric U-shaped curve,convincingly support Friedman's hypothesis that a rise in the inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty.Turning to Cukierman-Meltzer's hypothesis,the relationship between two variables is down U-shaped curve,where the left side has positive but the r...

It is shown that a large class of higher-order (i.e. non-quadratic) scalar kinetic terms can, without the help of potential terms, drive an inflationary evolution starting from rather generic initial conditions. In many models, this kinetically driven inflation (or “ k -inflation” for short) rolls slowly from a high-curvature initial phase, down to a low-curvature phase and can exit inflation to end up being radiation-dominated, in a naturally graceful manner. We hope that this novel inflation mechanism might be useful in suggesting new ways of recon-ciling the string dilaton with inflation.

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of the trimmed mean inflation rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator. Earlier works have examined the forecasting ability of limited-influence estimators (trimmed means and the weighted median) of the Consumer Price Index but none have compared the weighted median and trimmed mean of the PCE. Also addressed is the systematic bias that appears due to the differences in the means of inflation measures over the sample. This paper supports earlier results that limited-influence estimators provide better forecasts of future infla...

There has been much talk in the popular press about the difficulty of attaining credibility in the bond markets for the low-inflation policies that have been adopted by a number of central banks in recent years. This credibility problem is particularly severe for those countries that have a history of high inflation. Gaining credibility is often viewed in the context of learning by the public about the central bank’s true intentions. However, this paper argues that a more important aspect of credibility – at least for long-term inflation expectations – may be public views about how future chan...

This study estimates inflation and inflation uncertainty in Pakistan. To quantify the disparity in inflation levels, the average point is defined as the point at which positive and negative disruptions have an impact. The response to them can also influence the measures of positive and negative shocks in the fluctuation of inflation. The secondary data from 1983:Q1 to 2020:Q4 is derived from the IMF-IFS data series. The ARCH families of models are employed to calculate and analyze the inflation uncertainty in Pakistan. The ARCH and GARCH models capture the symmetric response of inflationary in...

ABSTRACT Quarterly data for Thailand are used in this article for the period 1965q3–2013q4 to investigate both the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility, and the impact of inflation volatility on economic growth. Inflation volatility is estimated by deploying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) technique. A Granger causality test is then conducted to examine the causality between inflation and inflation volatility. The empirical results obtained are consistent with a number of theoretical propositions. First, the results are consistent with the ...

This article starts by discussing the concept of "inflation hedging" and provides estimates of "inflation betas" for standard bond and well-diversified equity indices for over 45 countries. We show that such standard securities are poor inflation hedges. Expanding the menu of assets to Treasury bills, foreign bonds, real estate and gold improves matters but inflation risk remains difficult to hedge. We then describe how state-of-the-art term structure research has tried to uncover estimates of the inflation risk premium, the compensation for bearing inflation risk. Most studies, including very...

A method of manufacturing an inflator (1, 1A) filled in the a pressurized gas (G) for feeding to a bag as a filling gas into an enclosure (2), comprising: a housing preparatory step, in which the housing (2) having an opening (3) for filling of the pressurized gas (G), is provided; a closure body preparation step in which a closure body (16, 36), which closes the opening (3) and through which a filling channel (20, 40) which fills the pressurized gas (G) in the housing (2) provided is; a Verschlusskorpereinsetzschritt, which is carried out after the casing preparing step and the closing body p...

.  This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross-country study finds before the start of inflation targeting, but not after, core inflation differs between non-inflation targeters and inflation targeters. Through conditional regressions, inflation expectations as measured by core inflation have not changed ...

Discoveries of valuable minerals in undeveloped parts of the world frequently lead to a very sharp rise in prices of daily necessities . Examples are the diamond and gold mine rushes and, perhaps, the situation in Saudi Arabia and a number of other Arab states. Discussing the matter with a number of economists, I find that they take the view that these situations are inflationary because prices have gone up. This is, I believe, erroneous. The prices of daily necessities are going up very sharply but other prices, concealed within the internal accounting system of producing units, have fallen e...

Abstract This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors. The modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as in Del Negro and Otrok (2008), and is estimated using U.S. data on seventeen components of the...

Abstract This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation. We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence. We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s. We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.

The study investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for the period 1984-2011. The work uses the monthly Consumer Price Index to proxy inflation. The General Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is employed to estimate the conditional variability of inflation. The work uses two approaches to find out the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The first one is the two-step procedure of Granger causality test, which obtains generated variables in stage one as dependent variable in the second stage. The second procedure involves inclusi...

Ab s tract: In this paper, we cons truct a time s eries of monthly inflation uncertainty in Iran from 1990 to 2008 us ing EGA RCH model and inves tigate t h e lin k b e tween inflation and inflation uncertainty us ing Granger c aus ality tes t. The res ults indicate that inflation leads to higher inflation uncertainty in Iran but reverse relationshi p does not si gnificant.

a speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts

In this paper we develop and estimate a new-Keynesian model of inflation and use it to investigate the hypothesis that prices in the UK are re-set more frequently during periods of high inflation. In the model, firms are assumed to condition their expectations on an optimally-selected but incomplete information set and we further assume that the probability that they will reset their price in any quarter depends upon the prevailing inflationary regime. The model implies more complex inflation dynamics than conventional new-Keynesian models predict. We find that we cannot reject the formal rest...

The utility model relates to a pneumatic article with an inner built pneumatic equipment, the pneumatic article can be any article, such as a mattress, a sofa, a cushion, or an outdoor article, such as a small craft, a swim ring, a floating bed, or other air bags; a plurality of gas columns used for main supporting are distributed uniformly inside the pneumatic article, an air tap used for air exhaust is arranged at a proper position on the external of the pneumatic article, an air valve of the pneumatic equipment is arranged at a proper position inside the air bag, the valve is a closed cylin...

An extensive body of both empirical and theoretical literature focuses on the relationship between the rate of inflation and inflation uncertainty. Recent studies by Brunner and Hess (1993), Evans and Watchel (1993), and Ball and Cecchetti (1990) find statistical support for a positive association between the rate of inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.1 Theoretical studies by Cukierman and Meltzer (1986), Cukierman (1992) and Ball (1992) address the issue of the direction of causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Ball claims that higher inflation creates greater inf...

The distinction between costs and prices aggregates into the conflict between wages and profits in a macro-accounting framework. We exploit the Godley and Lavoie (2007) framework to derive a dynamical system in the variables. Deflation in at least one price is both necessary and sufficient for stability of the system.

In this note, we discuss new data on consumers' perceptions of recent inflation from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (MSC). Our preliminary results show that survey responses indicate inflation perceptions differ widely across individuals (with a slightly wider distribution than for inflation expectations) but the bulk of responses are between zero and five percent.

Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation uncertainty is strongly supported, in short run the Holland hypothesis proposing that the increase in the inflation uncertainty decreases inflation is a...

The link between inflation and its variability has been a topic of considerable interest and dispute, with theoretical disagreements and inconclusive empirical results. Empirical problems often arise from endogeneity and reverse causality. This paper reassesses the link through a system of simultaneous equations that addresses the reverse causality issue. Employing the identification through heteroskedasticity approach as an identification strategy and using a panel of 105 countries over the period 1960–2007, we find a two-way interaction between inflation and its variability. In particular, h...

The paper considers interrelation between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Latvia. The monthly growth in CPI in the period from January 1994 to June 2007 has been used as an inflation measure. The application of the GARCH-M model with lagged inflation in GARCH equation proves that a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty does exist. It suggests that increased inflation uncertainty raises inflation, and, vice versa, increased inflation is a cause for higher uncertainty about inflation in the future.

In this paper, the authors develop a measure of the cost of inflation uncertainty where a risk premium can be interpreted as the amount of real consumption that a representative agent is willing to forgo in order to be guaranteed a perfectly anticipated path of inflation. This premium can be calculated based on the estimation of a utility function that takes into account portfolio adjustment costs with respect to money balances and bonds, subject to a budget constraint that includes the after-tax returns on savings. With Canadian and U.S. data, it is shown that economic agents' preferences are...

In recent years, policymakers throughout the world have advocated that monetary policy shift toward inflation targeting. Recent actions in the United States serve to highlight the desire of the Federal Reserve to keep inflation both low and stable, while downplaying the likely output and employment consequences. But control of inflation requires both that one be able to forecast its future path, and that one have estimates of what impact policy changes have on that path. Unfortunately, inflation is very difficult to forecast even at very near horizons. This is true because the relationship of ...

Address before the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Peabody Hotel, Little Rock, April 6, 2004

type="main" xml:id="ecpa12075-abs-0001"> This paper highlights the problem of inflation volatility in Australia and deploys quarter-on-quarter CPI-inflation data over the period 1949q3–2013q4 to investigate the proposition of a feedback relation between inflation and inflation volatility in this country. The paper adopts the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) modelling technique to estimate simultaneously the conditional mean and the conditional variance of inflation and their interrelations in a dynamic context. A bivariate Granger-causality test is then conducted ...

This article empirically investigates the impact of inflation targeting on inflation uncertainty. We implement PARCH and GARCH methodologies to model conditional variance of inflation. We also investigate the relationship between level and volatility of inflation to analyze the validity of the Friedman hypothesis for IT countries. We find that most of the inflation targeting countries have significantly lower inflation variances after inflation targeting. In most of the IT countries, the relationship is consistent with the Friedman hypothesis.

The mass media frequently accuse official statistics of underestimating the inflation rate by half to two-thirds. And, as opposed to the "official" inflation, they report data on "real" inflation, which, it is claimed, reflect the true situation. The article describes the methodology by which the inflation rate is estimated by official statistics and analyzes potential sources of distortion of the estimate, concluding that the accusations are unfounded. It examines how "real" inflation is estimated and shows that it has nothing in common with reality: it is nothing more than "economic pop musi...

Johnson’s paper addresses one of the main issues of central banking: How successful have monetary authorities been in acquiring credibility for their inflation objectives? Johnson’s approach is both simple and elegant. For countries with explicit inflation targets, he examines whether inflation expectations are consistent with those targets. Since not all central banks have explicit inflation targets, he also asks whether inflation has been easily predictable, since this is viewed as one indicator of the successful implementation of monetary policy. The results, though mixed, are not particula...

This paper works closely with literature to investigate the impact of inflation targeting on inflation variance, used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. An analysis of previous work and related economic theory is posed. A GARCH methodology is implemented to measure inflation volatility, utilizing a variable to measure the presence of inflation targeting in relation to inflation variance. Also, a study of the impact of inflation levels on inflation volatility is conducted, in which the Friedman hypothesis is in question. It is found that most countries studied had significantly lower inflati...

A short review of inflation is given, starting with a description of the underlying mechanism and the scenario of events. Four variations -- old inflation, new inflation, chaotic inflation, and extended inflation -- are discussed. It is claimed that the inflationary model provides a plausible explanation for (i) the large number of particles in the universe, (ii) the Hubble expansion, (iii) the large-scale uniformity of the universe, (iv) the nearness of the universe to a critical density, (v) the absence of magnetic monopoles, and (vi) the scale-invariant spectrum of microwave background fluc...

Although current inflation rates are relatively benign, the costs of unexpected inflation, even at low rates, remain substantial for individual firms and consumers. Many types of planning decisions, such as businesses' and governments' plans for expected expenses and revenues, hinge on inflation forecasts. ; This article provides an overview of the effects of inflation and the significance of inflation forecasting. The author first considers how forecasting models are specifically designed to fill the needs of particular users. The analysis examines two statistical models--the Phillips curve a...

An inflatable boat 1 is formed from a u-shaped float 2 and comprises a rigid floor 6 and a hull 7 with a v-shaped cross section, made from a flexible canvas fixed to the float and held taught by an inflatable keel 8 between the floor and the canvas. The keel is an elongate enclosure formed by two flat parallel walls 9 extending longitudinally and perpendicular to the floor. The walls are braced by a plurality of flexible links 10 to enable the enclosure to be inflated to a relatively high pressure. The enclosure may be of a flat, plate type shape while the bottom edge (12, Fig 4) may be curved...