Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets
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Abstract
The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of inflation.I use data collected from credit and debit transactions in the US to update the official basket weights and estimate the impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).I find that the Covid inflation rate is higher than the official CPI in the US, for both headline and core indices.I also find similar results with Covid baskets in 10 out of 16 additional countries.The difference is significant and growing over time, as socialdistancing rules and behaviors are making consumers spend relatively more on food and other categories with rising inflation, and relatively less on transportation and other categories experiencing significant deflation.