Top Research Papers on Global Warming

Abstract Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to ...

It is shown that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming, and that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerableto global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.

Abstract Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. We propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution to assess its consequences. Our model features several forms of adaptation to local temperature changes, including costly trade and migration, local technological innovations, and local natality rates. We quantify the model at a 1∘×1∘ resolution and estimate damage functions that determine the impact of temperature changes on a region’s fundamental productivity and amenities conditional on lo...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.5°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the co...

Overall plant–pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour, but information is lacking on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.

Abstract Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because of the mix of climate pollutants it generates. Here, we model the CO 2 and non-CO 2 effects like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation’s total warming footprint. Aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO 2 . Aviation is projected to cause a total of about 0.1 °C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next three decades, ...

Abstract The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warmin...

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by—and in many cases modeled by—Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice...

Climate warming has widely variable effects on terrestrial ecosystems, and warming-induced changes in soil erosion could accelerate or slow down future warming. Numerous methods and models have been developed to evaluate soil erosion. However, the quantification of the impact of climate change on soil erosion and selection of the most appropriate soil erosion model for a particular study area remain unclear. With the intensification of climate warming, solutions to these problems are becoming increasingly more important. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of research on global soil er...

Determining the onset of organized disinformation about global warming is critical for understanding its political history and evaluating the responsibilities of fossil fuel producers and other relevant parties today. A newly discovered archival document shows the American Petroleum Institute was promulgating false and misleading information about climate change in 1980, nearly a decade earlier than previously known, in order to promote public policies favorable to the fossil fuel industry. This finding demonstrates early use of public-facing disinformation about global warming by the petroleu...

The ocean takes up about 93% of the global warming heat entering Earth's climate system. In addition, the associated thermal expansion contributes substantially to sea-level rise. Hence, quantifying the oceanic heat uptake rate and its statistical significance has been a research focus. Here we use gridded ocean heat content maps to examine regional trends in ocean warming for 0–700 m depth from 1993–2019 and 1968–2019, periods based on sampling distributions. The maps are from four research groups, three based on ocean temperature alone and one combining ocean temperature with satellite altim...

The authors model future flow and water temperature extremes and predict that increases in water temperature in particular will pose serious threats to freshwater fishes.

Abstract Carbon efflux from soils is the largest terrestrial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet it is still one of the most uncertain fluxes in the Earth’s carbon budget. A dominant component of this flux is heterotrophic respiration, influenced by several environmental factors, most notably soil temperature and moisture. Here, we develop a mechanistic model from micro to global scale to explore how changes in soil water content and temperature affect soil heterotrophic respiration. Simulations, laboratory measurements, and field observations validate the new approach. Estimates from the mod...

The major impacts of global warming on grape phenology and viticulture are reviewed and a focus is focused on the physiological and molecular responses of the grapevine to heat stress.

Abstract Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation 1 . Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of the extreme river flood events for the period 1951–2010 based on simulated river discharge derived from large ensemble climate experiments with and without human-induced climate change. The results indicate that human-induced clim...

Persistence of this climate change on ocean ecosystems, in future, will pose serious threat to the metabolism and distribution of marine microbes leading to fluctuations in the biogeochemical cycles thereby affecting the overall ecosystem functioning.

Abstract Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global wa...

It is shown that countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest antimicrobial resistance in aquaculture-related bacteria, and that infected aquatic animals have higher mortality at warmer temperatures.

Abstract How long will the four seasons be by 2100? Increasing evidence suggests that the length of a single season or in regional scales has changed under global warming, but a hemispherical‐scale response of the four seasons in the past and future remains unknown. We find that summer in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes has lengthened, whereas winter has shortened, owing to shifts in their onsets and withdrawals, accompanied by shorter spring and autumn. Such changes in lengths and onsets can be mainly attributed to greenhouse‐warming. Even if the current warming rate does not accelerate,...

Abstract Food consumption is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and evaluating its future warming impact is crucial for guiding climate mitigation action. However, the lack of granularity in reporting food item emissions and the widespread use of oversimplified metrics such as CO 2 equivalents have complicated interpretation. We resolve these challenges by developing a global food consumption GHG emissions inventory separated by individual gas species and employing a reduced-complexity climate model, evaluating the associated future warming contribution and potential benefits fr...

Abstract Increasing urbanization causes an urban heat island (UHI) effect and exacerbates health risks of heat waves due to global warming. The surface UHI (SUHI) in large cities has been extensively studied, yet a systematic evaluation on the impacts of urbanization on local‐to global‐scale land surface warming is lacking. We propose a new procedure to quantify the warming effects of urbanization at local, regional, and global scales using high‐resolution satellite observations. We find strong local warming effects for 88% of the urban‐dominated pixels across the globe and cooling effects for...

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive includes larger ensembles, longer historical simulations, and models with a broader range of climate sensitivity than CMIP5. These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections. The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well‐correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We first evaluate an approach that weights simulations based on the realism and degree of independence of their 1970–2014 trends, by treating each historical simulation in turn ...

Approximately 5%–7% of global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions can be attributed to Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), which has traditionally been used as the primary binder in concrete. Geopolymer concrete has been widely claimed to have lower global warming potential than OPC concrete, and this claim has formed the basis of many studies examining mix designs and mechanical properties of geopolymer concretes. A major limitation with the vast majority of existing studies is a lack of the direct quantification of the global warming potential of the materials developed. That is, the underlying assum...

Abstract Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excl...

It is shown that global cloud feedback is dominated by the sensitivity of clouds to surface temperature and tropospheric stability, which will enable tighter constraints on climate change projections, including its manifold socioeconomic and ecological impacts.

Although it is well known that insects are sensitive to temperature, how they will be affected by ongoing global warming remains uncertain because these responses are multifaceted and ecologically complex. We reviewed the effects of climate warming on 31 globally important phytophagous (plant‐eating) insect pests to determine whether general trends in their responses to warming were detectable. We included four response categories (range expansion, life history, population dynamics, and trophic interactions) in this assessment. For the majority of these species, we identified at least one resp...

Global warming is the ongoing rise in the average temperature of Earth's climate system. Over the past 50 years, the average temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history due to uncontrolled generation of greenhouse gases. Nuclear power is low carbon energy, and it is contributing on a large scale to a low carbon economy and a green energy grid. 442 nuclear power reactors are operating worldwide generating 393 GWe of electricity providing continuous and reliable low carbon power. Nuclear electricity accounts for 11% of total global electricity generation , and this amounts ...

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of th...

Model results show that on average, they have not slowed down in the past, but despite a slowing of tropical cyclones at higher latitudes, a poleward shift in their mean track location causes a general speed up under high greenhouse gas emissions.

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions 1,2 , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. ...

Abstract Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with ot...

Drylands, comprising land regions characterized by water-limited, sparse vegetation, have commonly been projected to expand globally under climate warming. Such projections, however, rely on an atmospheric proxy for drylands, the ‘aridity index’, which has recently been shown to yield qualitatively incorrect projections of various components of the terrestrial water cycle. Here, we use an alternative index of drylands, based directly on relevant ecohydrological variables, and compare projections of both indices in CMIP5 climate models as well as Dynamic Vegetation Models. The aridity index ove...

Abstract With increasing global interest in molecular hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, more attention is being paid to potential leakages of hydrogen into the atmosphere and its environmental consequences. Hydrogen is not directly a greenhouse gas, but its chemical reactions change the abundances of the greenhouse gases methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor, as well as aerosols. Here, we use a model ensemble of five global atmospheric chemistry models to estimate the 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP100) of hydrogen. We estimate a hydrogen GWP100 of 11.6 ± 2.8 (one s...

Since Shi et al. proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a “warming and drying” trend to a “warming and wetting” trend in the 1980s, researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia. In particular, the process of the “warming and wetting” trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention. However, there remain uncertainties about whether the “warming and wetting” trend has paused and what its future variations may be. In this study...

This finding suggests that the authors are likely to underestimate the potential impact of even a modest global warming scenario, as within the stressful temperature range, heat failure rate increases by more than 100% per degree Celsius across a broad range of ectotherm taxa.

Thermal performance curves are important for predicting warming effects on fish, and the continued importance of experimental physiology is emphasised, particularly in advancing the understanding of underlying mechanisms, but also the challenge of making this knowledge relevant to the more complex reality.

An ensemble of species distribution models finds an overall increase in plankton species richness driven by ocean warming, and a poleward shift of the species’ distributions at a median speed of 35 km/decade, implying that climate change threatens the contribution of plankton communities to plankton-mediated ecosystem services such as biological carbon sequestration.

It is shown that warmer temperatures increase the relative abundance of soil-borne potential fungal plant pathogens worldwide, and a global atlas of these organisms is provided, along with future distribution projections under different climate change and land-use scenarios.

Abstract The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urb...

The new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of COP26 represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges 1,2 . Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5°C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond 2-6 . We explore a suite of emissions pathways in which countries ratchet and achieve ambition through a combination of increasing near-term ambition through 2030, accelerating post-2030 decarbonization, and advancing the dates for national net-zero pledges. We show that ratcheting near-term ambition...