Top Research Papers on Trading

Abstract In the context of trade protectionism impacting economic and environmental sustainability, a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of trade on carbon emissions is critical to economic and environmental sustainability. Existing literature mainly explores the impact of trade on carbon emissions from the perspective of trade openness, neglecting the perspectives of trade diversification and trade direction. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the impact of trade openness (measured by trade volume, import, and export), and trade diversification (measured by import d...

This book discusses the business case for Quantitative Trading, how to identify a Strategy that suits you, and the importance of minimizing Transaction Costs.

This study aims to investigate the decoupling impact of trade on carbon emissions and under what circumstances trade would contribute to decoupling carbon emissions. A combination of Tapio decoupling model and structural threshold model is developed to study and quantify the impact. The empirical study uses panel data for 124 countries around the world from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the main state of the relationship between trade openness, economic growth and carbon emissions was weak decoupling. Moreover, there are two breakpoints in the impact of trade openness on carbon emissions...

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods for estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.

We study the financial implications of the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war for global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs are announced, U.S. firms that depend more on exports to and imports from China experience larger declines in market value, with the negative effect spilling over to the affected firms' suppliers and customers through production networks. The trade war effect is mainly concentrated among U.S. firms that sell to Chinese customers with low R&D intensity or outsource to Chinese differentiated input suppliers. We also exploit the within-firm variation in tariff e...

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on trading volume in stock markets around the world. We document a large spike in trading volume in 37 international equity markets. The surge in trading volume is found to be associated with the national culture and institutional environment of individual countries. In particular, investors tend to trade more heavily in societies characterized by a higher level of trust and individualism, as well as a lower level of uncertainty avoidance. Investors are also more willing to trade in wealthier nations, as well as those with stronger protection of legal...

This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the US-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the US on average reduces Chinese total exports to the US by 16.47%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export diversion to countries that are closer and have larger economies, and exports in R&D-intensive, skilled...

We review the state of knowledge concerning international CO 2 emission transfers associated particularly with trade in energy-intensive goods and concerns about carbon leakage arising from climate policies. The historical increase in aggregate emission transfers from developing to developed countries peaked around 2006 and declined since. Studies find no evidence that climate policies lead to carbon leakage, but this is partly due to shielding of key industrial sectors, which is incompatible with deep decarbonization. Alternative or complementary consumption-based approaches areneeded. Privat...

This paper examines whether the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds in the Chinese carbon trading pilots by employing the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) which is combined with the Panel KSS unit root tests with Fourier function. This approach serves as a highly valid tool in controlling for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity as well as structural shifts and nonlinearities. In virtue of the SPSM, the paper could divide the whole panel into two groups and clearly identify which and how many series belong to stationary or non-stationary group. The results show that carbon ...

African countries are negotiating the African Continental Free Trade Area with the aim to spearhead global value chain (GVC) trade among African countries as a driver for robust economic growth. This paper evaluates the participation of Sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in GVC-related trade over the period 1990-2015 using measures of backward, forward, regional, and non-regional GVC participation. We find that participation of African RECs in GVC trade (regional and non-regional) has increased but still lags behind comparator groups. Overall, African RECs have participat...

ABSTRACT Modern markets are characterized by speed differentials, with some traders being fractions of a second faster than others. Theoretical models suggest that such differentials may have both positive and negative effects on liquidity and gains from trade. We examine these effects by studying a series of exogenous weather episodes that temporarily remove the speed advantages of the fastest traders by disrupting their microwave networks. The disruptions are associated with lower adverse selection and lower trading costs. In additional analysis, we show that the long‐term removal of speed d...

Free trade is always under attack, more than ever in recent years. The imposition of numerous U.S. tariffs in 2018, and the retaliation those tariffs have drawn, has thrust trade issues to the top of the policy agenda. Critics contend that free trade brings economic pain, including plant closings and worker layoffs, and that trade agreements serve corporate interests, undercut domestic environmental regulations, and erode national sovereignty. Why are global trade and agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership so controversial? Does free trade deserve its bad reputation? This book aside ...

We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for goods where information frictions may be large. The social connections that predict trade in specific products are those between the regions where the product is produced in the exporting country and the regions where it is used in the importing country. Once we control for social connectedness, the estimated effects of geographic ...

[Download latest version] ABSTRACT ————————————————————————————————————-This paper studies the extent to which frictions in financial markets affect aggregate trade flows. I study a model of firm dynamics with financial frictions and international trade, calibrated to match key features of firm-level data. I find that, while financial frictions have a large effect on the pattern and extent of international trade at the industry-level, as documented in the literature, they have a small effect on trade at the aggregate-level. Relaxing the financial constraints allows more firms to finance the up...

We develop a monopolistically competitive model of trade with firm heterogeneity—in terms of productivity differences—and endogenous differences in the "toughness" of competition across markets—in terms of the number and average productivity of competing firms. We analyse how these features vary across markets of different size that are not perfectly integrated through trade; we then study the effects of different trade liberalization policies. In our model, market size and trade affect the toughness of competition, which then feeds back into the selection of heterogeneous producers and export...

Originally published in 1994, The Economics of the Tropical Timber Trade provides a detailed analysis of the economic linkages between the trade and forest degradation. Based on a report prepared for the ITTO, it looks current and future market conditions at the time of publication, and assesses the impacts on current and future market conditions, and assesses the impacts on tropical forests of both the international timber trade and domestic demand. The authors examine the causes of deforestation and compare the environmental impacts of the timber trade with other factors, such as the convers...

Deep trade agreements (DTAs) cover not just trade but additional policy areas, such as the international flows of investment and labor, and the protection of intellectual property rights and the environment. Their goal is integration beyond trade, or deep integration. 
\n
\nDTA rules influence how countries transact, invest, work, and, ultimately, develop. The rules and commitments in DTAs should be informed by evidence and shaped by development priorities rather than international power or domestic politics. An impediment to this goal is that data and analysis on trade agreements have...

In the digital age, a growing number of governments have adopted policies aimed at boosting growth through innovation and technological upgrading. The World Trade Report 2020 looks at these trends and at how trade and the WTO fit with them. A defining feature of government policies adopted in recent years has been their support of the transition towards a digital economy. Trade and trade policies have historically been important engines for innovation. In particular, the multilateral trading system has contributed significantly to the global diffusion of innovation and technology by fostering ...

The COVID-19 pandemic and the prospect of increasingly frequent and more intense natural and man-made disasters raise important questions about the resilience of the global economy to such shocks. The World Trade Report 2021 explores the basic, binary assumption driving much of the current debate about economic resilience, namely the inherent trade-off between global trade interdependence and national economic security, and suggests that this can be a false dilemma. Due to its interconnected nature, international trade can increase an economy’s exposure to risks and contribute to the transmiss...

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of cryptocurrency Trading research, by covering 146 research papers on various aspects of cryptocurrency trading (e.g., cryptocurrency trading systems, bubble and extreme condition, prediction of volatility and return, crypto-assets portfolio construction and crypto- assets, technical trading and others).

Abstract We examine how many and what kind of firms ultimately rely on foreign inputs, sell to foreign markets, and are affected by trade shocks. To capture that firms can trade indirectly by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. We find that most firms use a lot of foreign inputs, but only a small number of firms show that dependence through direct imports. While direct exporters are rare, a majority of firms are indirectly exporting. In most firms, however, indir...

Abstract We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Usin...

Did the rapid expansion of Chinese exports between 1990 and 2010 contribute to the country's worsening environmental quality? We exploit variation in local industrial composition to gauge the effect on pollution and health outcomes of export expansion due to the decline in tariffs faced by Chinese exporters. In theory, rising exports can increase pollution and mortality due to increased output, but they may also raise local incomes, which can in turn promote better health and environmental quality. The paper teases out these competing effects by constructing two export shocks at the prefecture...

The grid connection of large-scale clean energy provides the possibility for the establishment of a clean energy system. The urgent problem that needs to be solved is how to improve the utilization efficiency of clean energy to reduce carbon emissions. First, the virtual power plant (VPP) operation mode under the carbon trading and green certificate trading mechanism is analyzed. Secondly, this paper incorporates carbon trading mechanism and green certificate trading mechanism into the optimal dispatch model of VPP including wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, gas turbines an...

| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra

To promote energy conservation and emission reduction, China recently implemented a tradable green certificate market on the basis of the carbon emissions trading market. As an energy-intensive industry, the power industry is one of the leading contributors to carbon emissions in China. It is also the main participant in both the tradable green certificate market and the carbon emissions trading market. How to deal with the integration impact of the green certificate market and the carbon emissions trading market becomes a great challenge for the Chinese power industry. To improve sustainable ...

Carbon prices are low and fluctuate greatly since Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme pilots were operated. This paper discusses the price drivers in the pilots, using structural breaks test and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that oversupply of allowances, low auction prices and use of China certified emission reductions will cause remarkable decline on carbon prices; the expansion of carbon market and centralized trading will rise carbon prices. Oil prices are positively correlated with carbon prices, and coal prices are negatively related with carbon prices. C...

We study how opening to trade affects economic growth in a model where heterogeneous firms can adopt new technologies already in use by other firms in their home country. We characterize the growth rate using a summary statistic of the profit distribution: the mean-min ratio. Opening to trade increases the profit spread through increased export opportunities and foreign competition, induces more rapid technology adoption, and generates faster growth. Quantitatively, these forces produce large welfare gains from trade by increasing an inefficiently low rate of technology adoption and economic g...

In this paper, we study the role of the transportation sector in world trade. We build a spatial model that centers on the interaction of the market for (oceanic) transportation services and the market for world trade in goods. The model delivers equilibrium trade flows, as well as equilibrium trade costs (shipping prices). Using detailed data on vessel movements and shipping prices, we document novel facts about shipping patterns; we then flexibly estimate our model. We use this setup to demonstrate that the transportation sector (i) attenuates differences in the comparative advantage across ...

ABSTRACT We analyze the trading of corporate insiders at leading financial institutions during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis. We find strong evidence of a relation between political connections and informed trading during the period in which Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds were disbursed, and that the relation is most pronounced among corporate insiders with recent direct connections. Notably, we find evidence of abnormal trading by politically connected insiders 30 days in advance of TARP infusions, and that these trades anticipate the market reaction to the infusion. Our resul...

The ambitious targets for shipping emissions reduction and challenges for mechanism design call for new approaches to encourage decarbonization. Here we build a compound model chain to deconstruct global international shipping emissions to fine-scale trade flows and propose trade-linked indicators to measure shipping emissions efficiency. International maritime trade in 2018 contributes 746.2 Tg to shipping emissions of CO2, of which 17.2% is contributed from ten out of thousands of trade flows at the country level. We argue that potential unfairness exists if allocating shipping emissions res...

A meta-analysis of 31 mammal, bird and reptile studies reveals that hunting or trapping for the wildlife trade is associated with decreased abundances, even where harvesting for trade occurs in protected areas.

The extent to which herding and feedback trading behaviors drive price dynamics across nine major cryptocurrencies is examined, and the observed nature of the risk-return tradeoffs for each of the authors' sampled cryptocurrencies is shed.

Abstract We explore the interplay between trade-invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: (i) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; (ii) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; (iii) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the domina...

A pluralistic view of trade-offs and constraints, combined with integrative analyses that cross levels of biological organization and traditional boundaries among disciplines, will enhance the study of evolutionary organismal biology.

This study aims to examine how carbon trading policies impact total factor carbon productivity and subsequently provide recommendations for sustainable regional development. Through analyzing the trends in total factor carbon productivity and its mechanisms, this paper suggests that carbon trading policies can significantly enhance total factor carbon productivity. Additional mechanistic tests reveal that carbon trading can promote technological progress, factor accumulation, scale allocation and energy substitution effects; all contributing towards a low-carbon economic transition. These four...

It turns out that plants attacked by insects, pathogens and other biotic stressors may 'purposely' slow down their growth and that this response is often systemic, meaning that it occurs throughout the plant and beyond the tissue that is damaged by pests.

Changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands are shown for the first time and it is found that virtual green water exports and virtual blue water exports at least triple to more than 3200 bcm and 170 bcm by the end of the century.

This chapter aims to propose an assessment of the reality of informal trade in Africa, particularly in agriculture: How is it defined? What are its determinants? What is its magnitude, both in terms of traded products and countries involved? We present two interesting initiatives that are intended to assess the phenomenon of ICBT in African regions: (1) an initiative coordinated by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (Comité permanent Inter-État de Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel, abbreviated as CILSS) and implemented by the West African Association for Cros...

When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, partners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the trade elasticity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find that the elasticity of tariff-exclusive trade flows is −0.76 in the short run, and approximately −2 in the long run. Our long-run estimates are smaller than typical in the literature, and it takes 7 to10 years to converge to the long run, implying that (i) the welfare gains from trade are high and (ii) there are substantial convexities in the cost...