The Future of American Fertility

Abstract

American fertility is now lower than ever before. Although some evidence suggests upward pressure on fertility, at least in the short run, the trend is more likely to be downward. The source of low fertility is change in the family institution, in particular the increased respectability of non-maternal roles for women and the decreased importance of parents and children for each other. The substantial social and political consequences of the population transformation will provoke interest in demographic remedies, but probably to little avail. Institutional adaptation is appropriate and preferable.