Forecasting with more than one model
Journal of ForecastingPublished 1 July 1989
Derek W. Bunn
Citations103
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score0.70
SNIP1.09
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
An editorial review for the Special Issue on Combining Forecasts gives a background to the current growth of interest in this topic and speculates upon some of the reasons for this popularity.
Abstract
Abstract This paper comprises an editorial review for the Special Issue on Combining Forecasts. It gives a background to the current growth of interest in this topic and speculates upon some of the reasons for this popularity. Some of the main methodological issues in practice are also described.
Keywords
Decision SciencesEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyThe Combination of Forecasts
3,077 Citations1969John M. Bates, Clive W. J. Granger
Journal of ForecastingThe accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
1,469 Citations1982Spyros Makridakis, A. Andersen +7 more
The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
Journal of ForecastingImproved methods of combining forecasts
1,173 Citations1984Clive W. J. Granger, R. Ramanathan
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General)Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts
846 Citations1974Paul Newbold, Clive W. J. Granger
Management ScienceForecasting and Planning: An Evaluation
619 Citations1981Robin M. Hogarth, Spyros Makridakis
This paper explicitly recognizes the nature of F&P as future-oriented decision making activities and, as such, their dependence upon judgmental inputs and suggests reconceptualizing F &P through use of decision-theoretic concepts.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General)The Combination of Forecasts
372 Citations1983Robert L. Winkler, Spyros Makridakis
Management ScienceDecision Analysis Expert Use
296 Citations1974Peter A. Morris
The present paper develops a structure in which the expert resolution problem may be logically formulated and conceptually solved and a framework is developed which enables a decision maker to encode his state of information concerning an expert.
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyA Bayesian Approach to the Linear Combination of Forecasts
185 Citations1975Derek W. Bunn
It is shown how subjective probabilities can be meaningfully assigned over a set of forecasting models and updated, according to a Bayesian process, when the forecast realizations become known.
Management ScienceThe Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts
181 Citations1986Michael Lawrence, R. H. Edmundson +1 more
Combined forecasts are found to be more accurate than single forecasts with the greatest benefit realised at short forecast horizons and for easier as opposed to harder forecast series.
Management ScienceCombination of Forecasts: An Extension
108 Citations1987Сунил Гупта, Peter C. Wilton
International Journal of ForecastingStatistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts
102 Citations1985Derek W. Bunn
Journal of ForecastingThe use of non‐time series information in sales forecasting: A case study
87 Citations1988Bob Edmundson, Michael Lawrence +1 more
The Economic JournalExpectations: Theory and Evidence.
62 Citations1986Nigel W. Duck, K. Holden +2 more
Journal of ForecastingJudgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal eetension
60 Citations1989Brian P. Mathews, Adamantios Diamantopoulos
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyThe Combination of Forecasts: a Bayesian Approach
58 Citations1982Robert F. Bordley
Journal of ForecastingAn examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting
48 Citations1989Marcus O’Connor, Michael Lawrence
Journal of ForecastingBayesian consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables
44 Citations1985Carson E. Agnew
Journal of ForecastingCombining multiple forecasts given multiple objectives
40 Citations1982Gary R. Reeves, Kenneth D. Lawrence
Journal of ForecastingLinear combination of forecasts: A general Bayesian model
40 Citations1989G. Anandalingam, Lian Chen
Journal of ForecastingUnbiasedness, efficiency and the combination of economic forecasts
38 Citations1989K. Holden, David Peel
Journal of ForecastingThe combining of forecasts using recursive techniques with non‐stationary weights
28 Citations1989David N. Sessions, Samprit Chatterjee
Journal of the Operational Research SocietyA Comparative Evaluation of the Outperformance and Minimum Variance Procedures for the Linear Synthesis of Forecasts
25 Citations1977Derek W. Bunn
Two Bayesian approaches are considered; one based upon estimating the minimum variance parameters; the other utilising subjective probabilities on the relative forecasting ability of each predictor.
Journal of Marketing ResearchThe Synthesis of Predictive Models in Marketing Research
23 Citations1979Derek W. Bunn
A formal procedure for synthesizing the variety of predictive models usually available to the market research analyst is presented as a practical method, involving the assignment of subjective probabilities to the various predictive models and the revision of these prior model probabilities according to a Dirichlet process if a set of performance data is available.
Journal of ForecastingA preference‐based method for forecast combination
12 Citations1989Kent D. Wall, Charles A. Correia
SSRN Electronic JournalCollinearity and the Use of Latent Root Regression for Combining GNP Forecasts
7 Citations1989John B. Guerard, Robert T. Clemen
Journal of ForecastingComments on testing for forecast and specification optimality using linear composites
1 Citations1988Robert F. Phillips
It is shown that a consistent test of forecast optimality cannot in general be obtained using linear composites, and necessary and sufficient conditions for forecast Optimality in the mean square error sense are given.
