Microarrays and molecular research: noise discovery?

The LancetPublished 1 February 2005

John P. A. Ioannidis

DOI10.1016/s0140-6736(05)17878-7

Source URL

Citations270

SJR quartileQ1

SJR score12.11

SNIP22.72

Abstract

The promise of microarrays has been of apocalyptic dimensions. As put forth by one of their inventors, "all human illness can be studied by microarray analysis, and the ultimate goal of this work is to develop effective treatments or cures for every human disease by 2050". 1 Schena M Microarray analysis. Wiley-Liss, New York2003: 21 Google Scholar All diseases are to be redefined, all human suffering reduced to gene-expression profiles. Cancer has been the most common early target of this revolution 2 Ntzani EE Ioannidis JP Predictive ability of DNA microarrays for cancer outcomes and correlates. Lancet. 2003; 362: 1439-1444 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (278) Google Scholar and publications in the most prestigious journals have heralded the discovery of molecular signatures conferring different outcomes and requiring different treatments. Yet, in today's Lancet, Stefan Michiels and colleagues show that, on close scrutiny, in five of the seven largest studies on cancer prognosis, this technology performs no better than flipping a coin. The other two studies barely beat horoscopes. Why such failure? Prediction of cancer outcome with microarrays: a multiple random validation strategyThe prognostic value of published microarray results in cancer studies should be considered with caution. We advocate the use of validation by repeated random sampling. Full-Text PDF

Keywords

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

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