Long waves in world industrial production, energy consumption, innovations, inventions, and patents and their identification by spectral analysis

Abstract

Long-term cycles have been much discussed in the literature since Kondratieff (1926). (“Cycles” is, of course, a quite arbitrary term for these time periods.) Spectral analysis was applied by the authors to long-time series of industrial production, energy consumption, inventions, innovations, and patents in order to reveal quantitative regularities in their behavior and or in their interdependence. An attempt was also made to identify logistics within those time series. In the long cycle of 50–53 years no significant autocorrelation could be detected. Logistics exist only in three special periods for innovations and inventions. Nondominant long cycles do appear in the interaction between innovations, production, patents, and energy consumption. The investigation shed light on the causal structure of the innovation system. In particular, it revealed a significant influence of industrial production on patents with a lag of 9 years.