The underground economy in the United States: estimates and implications.

Abstract

The paper analyses the increasing relevance that the underground economy has taken on in the United States and in the political debate of the country. It then proceeds to estimate the size of the U.S. underground economy by estimating the demand for currency for underground transactions. To do so, the author employs a modified version of Cagan’s model, estimating the demand for such “illegal currency” from 1929 to 1976, the longest period for which data are available for the U.S at this time.