EFTE: An interactive Delphi method
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangePublished 1 August 1985
Keith R. Nelms, Alan L. Porter
Citations66
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score3.47
SNIP3.25
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work using EFTE, which offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem.
Abstract
A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate—the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem.
Keywords
PsychologySocial SciencesBusiness, Management and Accounting
Management ScienceAn Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts
6,017 Citations1963Norman C. Dalkey, Olaf Helmer
RAND Corporation eBooksThe Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion
1,645 Citations1969Norman C. Dalkey
Academy of Management JournalThe Effectiveness of Nominal, Delphi, and Interacting Group Decision Making Processes.
694 Citations1974Aplicación De, A. L. Delbecq
Organizational Behavior and Human PerformanceA comparative study of differences in subjective likelihood estimates made by individuals, interacting groups, Delphi groups, and nominal groups
385 Citations1973David H. Gustafson, Ramesh K. Shukla +2 more
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeStability and agreement criteria for the termination of Delphi studies
357 Citations1979Jarir S. Dajani, Michael Z. Sincoff +1 more
It is proposed that a χ2 test be used to test the stability of responses between rounds of Delphi rounds, and demonstrated by a numerical example.
Organizational Behavior and Human PerformanceA note on aggregating opinions
321 Citations1978Robin M. Hogarth
Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process
291 Citations1974Harold Sackman
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeThe methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique
281 Citations1975Kim Hill, Jib Fowles
Organizational Behavior and Human PerformanceImproving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique
163 Citations1979John Rohrbaugh
Medical Entomology and ZoologyLooking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research
129 Citations1983Olaf Helmer
A history of the development of futures research is shown, showing how it grew out of operations research, systems analysis and gaming to become a practical tool in government and business decision-making.
Journal of ForecastingRelative accuracy of judgemental and extrapolative methods in forecasting annual earnings
90 Citations1983J. Scott Armstrong
Organizational Behavior and Human PerformanceWhen oracles fail—A comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts
80 Citations1981Gregory W. Fischer
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeIndividual stability in Delphi studies
75 Citations1980Wilkie W. Chaffin, Wayne K. Talley
It is demonstrated that individual stability implies group stability but that the converse does not hold, and a χ 2 test is proposed for testing the stability of individual responses between consecutive Delphi rounds.
The Journal of Social PsychologyGroup Problem Solving Effectiveness under Conditions of Pooling vs. Interaction
60 Citations1963Ernest J. Hall, Jane Srygley Mouton +1 more
IEEE Transactions on Engineering ManagementThe effectiveness of group brainstorming in engineering problem solving
44 Citations1975Andrew C. Lewis, Thomas L. Sadosky +1 more
Academy of Management JournalA Comparative Analysis of Three Diverse Group Decision Making Approaches.
40 Citations1979F. C. Miner
RAND Corporation eBooksThe Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts
37 Citations1970Norman C. Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown +1 more
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeAn analysis of prior delphi applications and some observations on its future applicability
35 Citations1977William L. Brockhaus, John F. Mickelsen
Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeShang inquiry as an alternative to Delphi: Some experimental findings
31 Citations1975David A. Ford
Findings indicate that Shang is generally superior to Delphi in producing accurate numerical estimates from the judgments of a group of experts.
The Journal of General PsychologyThe Reliability and Convergence of the Delphi Technique
27 Citations1978Fred Dagenais