Comparison of delphi forecasting studies in 1964 and 1969
FuturesPublished 1 March 1970
Robert H. Ament
Citations53
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score1.12
SNIP1.61
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Abstract
The Institute for the Future recently completed a Delphi study that considered prospective developments in physical and biological technologies. 1 Because many of the forecasts were made for events and developments that were considered in a study five years earlier, 2 a comparison of the two studies provides an opportunity to observe the effect of the passage of time on forecasts. Such a review also makes it possible to develop some data on the consistency and performance of different panels.
Keywords
Social Sciences
RAND Corporation eBooksREPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY,
316 Citations1964Theodore J. Gordon, Olaf Helmer
An experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a period extending as far as fifty years into the future, using a sequence of questionnaires to elicit predictions from individual experts in six broad areas: scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems.