Growth, Stagnation, and Migration: An Explorative Analysis of the Tributario Series of Anáhuac (1720-1800)

Abstract

H oow to analyze the demographic patterns in eighteenth-century rural Central Mexico is a question that has occupied me during my research into its agrarian history. Most social and economic historians of the region would acknowledge that their work is still considerably hampered by the lack of demographic data. One almost never finds a direct answer to the questions of how many persons lived in a certain town or village, province, or district; the published parochial and census data must be considered nothing more than rough estimates. Even more challenging is the reconstruction of the precise rhythm and subregional differentiation of demographic developments during the eighteenth century. In the long run parish data may supply the missing links; in the short term the office of the tribute collectors seems to be the best place to begin building a framework for future local or parish studies. For this reason I have chosen to fill out the printed record of census data with new tributario figures. Although the calculations based on tribute materials do not capture demographic patterns in non-Indian groups, they are in line with estimates from other demographic studies and confirm the general impression of growth, with possible extreme periodic and regional variations. Rapid growth in some central valleys and a few downslope areas seemed to coincide with stagnation around the city of Puebla. Where previous research has emphasized epidemics as the motive force behind these