Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research

Abstract

Introduction and description of election futures markets The Iowa Electronic Markets are small-scale, real-money futures markets conducted by the University of Iowa College of Business. In this review we focus on the best known of these markets, The Iowa Political Markets. Contracts in these markets are designed so that prices should predict election outcomes. The data set contains the results of 49 markets covering 41 elections in 13 countries. The Iowa Markets operate 24-hours a day, using a continuous, double-auction trading mechanism. Traders invest their own funds, make their own trades, and conduct their own information search. The markets occupy a niche between the stylized, tightly controlled markets conducted in the laboratory and the information-rich environments of naturally occurring markets. By virtue of this design, the Iowa Markets provide data to researchers that is not otherwise available. Investments are typically limited to a $500 maximum per trader and general