Deterministic and probabilistic reasons and causes

Abstract

The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide for a unified account of direct causation. It starts by explicating the relation of one proposition being a reason for another as the first being positively relevant for the second. The explication is given in probabilistic terms and in deterministic terms, i.e., relative to a representation of epistemic states in which propositions are held true or false or neither. By examining Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causation and amending it with the observation that there are not only spurious and indirect, but also hidden causes, I arrive at the conclusion that direct causes must be understood as conditional reasons: a cause is a reason for its direct effect conditional on the whole past of the effect with the exception of the cause.