The effect of value on statements of expectancy under four experimental conditions

Abstract

Two hypotheses were put forth with respect to the relationship of value to statements of expectancy. First, given a specific sequence and relative frequency of a set of outcomes, the perception that the outcomes are skill-influenced will result in expectancy statements biased in direct relationship to the values of the outcomes. Secondly, forcing a distinction in expectations regarding events which are equally likely introduces a bias directly related to the values of the outcomes. Four groups of 10 subjects each were run under four experimental conditions. These were, Skill-Forced rank-order; Skill-Equal rank option; Chance-Forced rank-order; and Chance-Equal rank option. Both major hypotheses were supported by the data. In the discussion it was emphasized that the Skill-Chance dimension must be taken into serious consideration in research on expectancies (subjective probabilities) and that it is advisable to liberalize the judgment categories provided for expectancies in order to minimize the danger of artifactual bias.