Predicting Probation Outcomes: Factors Associated with Probation Rearrest, Revocations, and Technical Violations during Supervision

Abstract

We examined probation outcomes in a sample of more than 2,400 discharged adult probationers in Illinois. We grouped predictor variables into three major categories (probationer characteristics, offense type, and sentence characteristics), and studied three different probation outcomes (rearrest, technical violations, and revocations). Logistic regression analyses showed that different predictors were related to different outcomes and replicated many of the results of previous research. Age, income, prior adult convictions, histories of drug abuse and dependence, and supervision setting were significant predictors of all three outcomes. Race, education, conviction offense, offense class, and sentence length predicted some of the outcomes, but not all three.