The tropical cyclone hazard over the South China Sea 1970–1989

Abstract

An assessment of the spatial dimension of tropical cyclone hazard potential in the South China Sea is based on an analysis of gridded tropical cyclone frequency data, covering the period 1970–1989. Analysis reveals that the inter-annual variations in the areal extent and spatial dispersion of tropical cyclone activity can be used as an index of tropical cyclone hazard potential in the South China Sea. Perturbations in the tropical ocean-atmosphere system, as manifest by the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events through their control on the synoptic atmospheric circulation environment, are also shown to have marked impacts on the spatio-temporal characteristics of tropical cyclones. Implications for the general assessment of the tropical cyclone hazard potential in the South China Sea are discussed.