The Rationality of Drawing Big Conclusions Based on Small Samples: In Defense of Mill's Methods

Abstract

Skocpol endorses the application of Mill's methods of causal inference for comparative historical explanations. According to Lieberson (1991), in studies where the sample size is very small, Mill's methods are inappropriate because they: (1) do not allow for probabilistic theories; (2) cannot handle interaction effects; (3) cannot accommodate multiple causes; (4) require the absence of measurement errors. Each of these claims turn out to be incorrect due to confusion over the uses of Mill' methods, failure to appreciate the aims of case-oriented explanations, and a narrow conception of cause. Small sample size does not constitute an obstacle to the application of Mill's methods.