A model framework for integrated studies of the climate problem

A simple version is used to illustrate how appropriate computer model frameworks can be used to perform uncertainty analysis, and how, together with expert judgment, they might be used in setting research priorities.

Abstract

Establishing research priorities and developing and evaluating alternative policy options in the domain of climate change are activities that require a broad look across all the elements of the climate problem. Such broad integrated assessment should involve different analytical approaches in different parts of the problem. However, appropriate computer model frameworks, into which a variety of specific alternative results and submodels can be inserted, can provide convenient vehicles for putting the pieces together. Such a framework is described. A simple version is used to illustrate how such frameworks can be used to perform uncertainty analysis, and how, together with expert judgment, they might be used in setting research priorities.