Gravity versus radiation models: On the importance of scale and heterogeneity in commuting flows

It is shown that the thermodynamic limit assumption for the original radiation model significantly underestimates the commuting flows for large cities, and the parameter-free radiation model gives competitive results, especially for large scales.

Abstract

We test the recently introduced radiation model against the gravity model for the system composed of England and Wales, both for commuting patterns and for public transportation flows. The analysis is performed both at macroscopic scales, i.e., at the national scale, and at microscopic scales, i.e., at the city level. It is shown that the thermodynamic limit assumption for the original radiation model significantly underestimates the commuting flows for large cities. We then generalize the radiation model, introducing the correct normalization factor for finite systems. We show that even if the gravity model has a better overall performance the parameter-free radiation model gives competitive results, especially for large scales.