Visioning (and preparing for) the future

Abstract

Abstract Decision making in uncertain times requires a movement away from single-point forecasting toward more flexible “what-if” thinking. Companies thus need to become “learning organizations,” capable of adapting to rapid changes in their environment. But this requires a change, not only in the planning and decision-making process, but (more significantly) in the culture of the corporation itself. Using as an example a 1987 scenarios-based approach to R&D strategy in Norway's Statoil, this article examines the beginning steps taken toward this end—overcoming the inertia of “groupthink,” stimulating greater openness to new ways of thinking and acting, and preparing managers to deal with “surprises” as a way of life, as well as producing a new and resilient R&D strategy.