The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables
Empirical EconomicsPublished 27 December 2010Open access
Helmut Lütkepohl, Fang Xu
Citations213
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
Autoregressive moving average process, Forecast mean squared error, Instantaneous transformation, Integrated process, Heteroskedasticity, C22,
Keywords
Decision SciencesEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
Springer series in statisticsInformation Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle
17,886 Citations1998H. Akaike
New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
5,786 Citations2005Helmut Lütkepohl
This reference work and graduate level textbook considers a wide range of models and methods for analyzing and forecasting multiple time series, which include vector autoregressive, cointegrated, vector Autoregressive moving average, multivariate ARCH and periodic processes as well as dynamic simultaneous equations and state space models.
National Bureau of Economic ResearchComparing Predictive Accuracy
5,308 Citations1994Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsComparing Predictive Accuracy
2,414 Citations1995Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano
International Journal of ForecastingTesting the equality of prediction mean squared errors
1,996 Citations1997David I. Harvey, Stephen J. Leybourne +1 more
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Forecasting Transformed Series
299 Citations1976Clive W. J. Granger, Paul Newbold
Journal of Time Series AnalysisNONLINEAR TRANSFORMATIONS OF INTEGRATED TIME SERIES
194 Citations1991Clive W. J. Granger, Jeff Hallman
SSRN Electronic JournalChina’s Current Account and Exchange Rate
169 Citations2009Yin‐Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn +1 more
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationThe Effect of Aggregation on Prediction in the Autoregressive Model
166 Citations1972Takeshi Amemiya, Roland Y. Wu
From such an aggregate model, the optimal predictor of the aggregate variable is derived and it performs remarkably well compared to the optimal disaggregate predictor.
Journal of money credit and bankingIdentifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility
166 Citations2008Markku Lanne, Helmut Lütkepohl
Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systemsForecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
164 Citations1987Helmut Lütkepohl
SSRN Electronic JournalVolatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets
137 Citations2009John Beirne, Guglielmo Maria Caporale +2 more
SSRN Electronic JournalActive Labor Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis
114 Citations2009David Card, Jochen Kluve +1 more
SSRN Electronic JournalFemale Labor Supply and Parental Leave Benefits: The Causal Effect of Paying Higher Transfers for a Shorter Period of Time
108 Citations2009Annette Bergemann, Regina T. Riphahn
RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsEstimation of Higher-Order Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Error Component Models
84 Citations2009Harald Badinger, Peter Egger
SSRN Electronic JournalMoney Matters - Evidence from a Large-Scale Randomized Field Experiment with Vouchers for Adult Training
76 Citations2009Dolores Messer, Stefan C. Wolter
SSRN Electronic JournalBootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU
67 Citations2009António Afonso, Christophe Rault
SSRN Electronic JournalApplication of Stochastic Optimal Control to Financial Market Debt Crises
62 Citations2009Jerome L. Stein
SSRN Electronic JournalThe Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area
53 Citations2009Carlo Altavilla, Matteo Ciccarelli
SSRN Electronic JournalThe Role of Profit Sharing in a Dual Labour Market with Flexible Outsourcing
48 Citations2009Erkki Koskela, Jan Koenig
BOA (University of Milano-Bicocca)Agency and communicaton in IMF conditional lending: Theory and empirical evidence: theory and empirical evidence
46 Citations2009Silvia Marchesi, Laura Sabani +1 more
SSRN Electronic JournalCommon Trends and Common Cycles among Interest Rates of the G7-Countries
44 Citations2009Nannette Lindenberg, Frank Westermann
SSRN Electronic JournalThe Economics of a Multilateral Investment Agreement
41 Citations2009Jiahua Che, Gerald Willmann
International Journal of ForecastingForecasting the levels of vector autoregressive log-transformed time series
40 Citations2000Miguel Á. Ariño, Philip Hans Franses
Journal of EconometricsThe effect of data transformation on common cycle, cointegration, and unit root tests: Monte Carlo results and a simple test
38 Citations2005Valentina Corradi, Norman R. Swanson
A simple randomized procedure is proposed, coupled with sample conditioning, for choosing between levels and log-levels specifications in the presence of deterministic and/or stochastic trends and the impact that incorrect transformation can have on the finite sample performance of common feature and cointegration tests.
Journal of EconometricsThe use of R2 to determine the appropriate transformation of regression variables
33 Citations1976Clive W. J. Granger, Paul Newbold
Empirical EconomicsMonitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France
30 Citations2007Andrea Silvestrini, Matteo Salto +2 more
Economics LettersOn the sensitivity of unit root inference to nonlinear data transformations
24 Citations1998Philip Hans Franses, Gary Koop
Journal of ForecastingForecasting temporally aggregated vector ARMA processes
23 Citations1986Helmut Lütkepohl
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationTests of Linear and Logarithmic Transformations for Integrated Processes
18 Citations1999Masahito Kobayashi, Michael McAleer
SSRN Electronic JournalThe Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables
17 Citations2009Helmut Luetkepohl, Fang Xu
Economics LettersTesting for unit roots in the context of misspecified logarithmic random walks
15 Citations2002Walter Krämer, Laurie Davies
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationTests of Linear and Logarithmic Transformations for Integrated Processes
6 Citations1999Masahito Kobayashi, Michael McAleer
