The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th

Abstract

In this paper an analytical model is developed to incorporate the essential characteristics of the stabilization plan implemented in Argentina in January 1979. The model is based upon a set of simplifying assumptions that only approximate the complexity of the real world. It is assumed that the expectations of inflation and the degree of excess demand or supply in the non-traded goods market are the main intermediate determinants of the rate of inflation in that market, the rate of change of prices of traded goods being determined by the external inflation together with the rate of devaluation. Treating thus the external rate of inflation as exogenous, the only instrument available for influencing the rate of inflation in the long run is the rate of devaluation. Since the model assumes a fixed exchange rate regime, the money supply is endogenous and hence unsuitable as an instrument of economic policy.