APPLICATIONS OF MODELS OF ACTIVITY BEHAVIOR FOR ACTIVITY BASED DEMAND FORECASTING

Abstract

Reviewed in this paper are samples of studies in which activity-based models have been applied to demand forecasting and policy analysis. The forecasting models utilized are classified into two groups: (1) structural equations model systems of measures of mobility and activity participation; and (2) microsimulation model systems of individuals' activity engagement and travel. The objectives of this review are to summarize the progress so far made in the application of activity-based models to demand forecasting, and to demonstrate the benefits this approach will offer when it is fully developed. Section 1 provides an introduction. In the next two sections, the limitations of the conventional trip-based models and the reasons why activity-based models should be used, are discussed. In Section 4, requirements for activity-based demand forecasting are discussed. Application examples of structural equations models and microsimulation models of activity and travel are presented in Sections 5 and 6, respectively. Section 7 offers conclusions.