Long-Term Changes in Soil Water Tables over thePast 4500 Years: Relationships with Climate and NorthAtlantic Atmospheric Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

A record of mean annual water table changes in Englandover the past 4500 years is derived from a transferfunction applied to protozoan assemblages in peatprofiles. A 100-year running mean value based on threeprofiles shows short-term changes which are closelyrelated to instrumental records of mean annualtemperature changes (past 300 yr) and documentaryrecords of summer wetness and winter severity (past900 yr). Long-term (>1000 yr) changes in thiscomposite record are positively correlated with theGISP2 ice accumulation record, suggesting moisturebudgets were in phase across the North Atlantic regionover at least the last 2000 years and probably changeddue to north-south movements of major pressurecentres. This hypothesis is further supported bycomparisons with indicators of sea surface temperatureand ocean circulation. Existing regional climatepredictions may underestimate the impact of futurewarming on soil moisture status, with significant implications for agriculture and water supply in northwestern Europe.