Estimating End-Use Demand: A Bayesian Approach

Abstract

Eliminating negative end-use or appliance consumption estimates and incorporating direct metering information into the process of generating these estimates; these are two important aspects, of conditional demand analysis (CDA) that will be the focus of this raper.In both cases a Bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding.What needs to be investigated is whether it is also a viable and effective approach.In addition, such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction.Our application involves the estimation of electrical appliance consumptions for a sample of Australian households.This application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full Bayesian analysis of the problem.