The oracle that failed

The authors illustrate how they tested the Delphi forecasting technique in a survey of trends in U.K. management education in the next decade and suggest that Delphi methodology may be inadequate for challenging cultural or professional norms.

Abstract

In this article the authors illustrate how they tested the Delphi forecasting technique in a survey of trends in U.K. management education in the next decade. They found that ritualistic adherence to descriptions of Delphi procedures in the literature appeared inappropriate, particularly in the conversion of respondents' ideas into constructs that were at the same time unambiguous, quantifiable, and meaningful. They suggest that Delphi methodology may be inadequate for challenging cultural or professional norms and that optional systematic procedures to stimulate new insights may be necessary.