Chapter 20 Income and price effects in foreign trade

Abstract

This chapter identifies, summarizes, and evaluates the main methodological and policy issues that have surrounded the estimation of trade equations. By "trade equations," it mean equations for the time-series behavior of the quantities and prices of merchandise imports and exports, and as the title of the chapter suggests, it focuses explicitly on the role played by income and prices in the determination of these trade variables. The chapter addresses the main methodological issues in the specification of trade models. It discusses variables in demand and supply functions for imports and exports, what choices and compromises have to be made in the measurement of these variables, and what light existing evidence throws on the choice among competing specifications. The treatment of dynamics and time lags, aggregation, simultaneity, and stability of the relationships concerned has also been discussed in the chapter. The empirical estimates of income and price elasticities themselves and to the policy implications of those estimates have also been reviewed. Finally, suggestions are made for further research in the chapter.