Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks
Open Journal of StatisticsPublished 1 January 2014Open access
Claudio Morana
Citations14
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
In the paper, a general framework for large scale modeling of macroeconomic and financial time series is introduced. The proposed approach is characterized by simplicity of implementation, performing well independently of persistence and heteroskedasticity properties, accounting for common deterministic and stochastic factors. Monte Carlo results strongly support the proposed methodology, validating its use also for relatively small cross-sectional and temporal samples.
Keywords
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data Via the <i>EM</i> Algorithm
49,657 Citations1977A. P. Dempster, N. M. Laird +1 more
EconometricaCo-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing
31,933 Citations1987Robert F. Engle, C. W. J. Granger
Journal of EconometricsGeneralized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
22,300 Citations1986Tim Bollerslev
EconometricaA New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle
9,683 Citations1989James D. Hamilton
EconometricaThe Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis
7,672 Citations1989Pierre Perrón
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsDynamic Conditional Correlation
7,066 Citations2002Robert F. Engle
EconometricaEstimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes
5,869 Citations1998Jushan Bai, Pierre Perrón
EconometricaEstimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure
4,810 Citations2006M. Hashem Pesaran
The Review of Economics and StatisticsModelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized Arch Model
3,539 Citations1990Tim Bollerslev
EcologyStopping Rules in Principal Components Analysis: A Comparison of Heuristical and Statistical Approaches
2,301 Citations1993Donald A. Jackson
Journal of EconometricsFractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
2,275 Citations1996Richard T. Baillie, Tim Bollerslev +1 more
Econometric ReviewsModelling the persistence of conditional variances
2,051 Citations1986Robert F. Engle, Tim Bollerslev
Journal of EconometricsLong memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics
1,886 Citations1996Richard T. Baillie
A survey and review of the major econometric work on long memory processes, fractional integration, and their applications in economics and finance and some of the definitions of long memory are reviewed.
Journal of EconometricsAutoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime
1,847 Citations1994James D. Hamilton, Raúl Susmel
The Review of Economics and StatisticsThe Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification and Estimation
1,715 Citations2000Mario Forni, Marc Hallin +2 more
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsModeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model
1,349 Citations2004M. Hashem Pesaran, Til Schuermann +1 more
SSRN Electronic JournalDynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models
1,121 Citations2000Robert F. Engle
Journal of EconometricsMaximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models
1,057 Citations1992Fallaw Sowell
Review of Financial StudiesThe Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes
879 Citations2008Robert F. Engle, José Gonzalo Rangel
Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisHow many principal components? stopping rules for determining the number of non-trivial axes revisited
835 Citations2004Pedro R. Peres‐Neto, Donald A. Jackson +1 more
A Bartlett's test is used to test the significance of the first principal component, indicating whether or not at least two variables share common variation in the entire data set, and a two-step approach appears to be highly effective.
Journal of Time Series AnalysisA Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks
824 Citations2006Ralf Becker, Walter Enders +1 more
National Bureau of Economic ResearchImplications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis
796 Citations2005James H. Stock, Mark Watson
Journal of Empirical FinanceOccasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns
793 Citations2004Clive W. J. Granger, Namwon Hyung
Journal of EconometricsForecasting economic time series using targeted predictors
699 Citations2008Jushan Bai, Serena Ng
Economics LettersThe flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests
696 Citations2012Walter Enders, Junsoo Lee
EconometricaConfidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions
641 Citations2006Jushan Bai, Serena Ng
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsDetermining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models
545 Citations2006Jushan Bai, Serena Ng
Econometric TheoryStatistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2
526 Citations1989Joon‐Young Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Review of Economics and StatisticsA Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
519 Citations2011Catherine Doz, Domenico Giannone +1 more
National Bureau of Economic ResearchTesting For Common Features
483 Citations1990Robert Engle, Sharon Kozicki
Journal of EconometricsA two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering
481 Citations2011Catherine Doz, Domenico Giannone +1 more
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationA One-Factor Multivariate Time Series Model of Metropolitan Wage Rates
447 Citations1981Robert F. Engle, Mark W. Watson
The Journal of FinanceA Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model
439 Citations1993Gregory Connor, Robert A. Korajczyk
EURASIP Journal on Advances in Signal ProcessingPrincipal Component Analysis in ECG Signal Processing
368 Citations2007Francisco Castells, Pablo Laguna +3 more
Several ECG applications are reviewed where PCA techniques have been successfully employed, including data compression, ST-T segment analysis for the detection of myocardial ischemia and abnormalities in ventricular repolarization, extraction of atrial fibrillatory waves for detailed characterization of atrium fibrillation, and analysis of body surface potential maps.
Journal of EconometricsThe generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates
309 Citations2003Mario Forni, Marc Hallin +2 more
Journal of EconometricsEstimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data
303 Citations2004Jushan Bai
Journal of EconometricsPrincipal components estimation and identification of static factors
294 Citations2013Jushan Bai, Serena Ng
The Review of Economic StudiesStructural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data
294 Citations2009Jushan Bai, Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre
Journal of Time Series AnalysisLeast‐squares Estimation of an Unknown Number of Shifts in a Time Series
281 Citations2000Marc Lavielle, Éric Moulines
Journal of EconometricsInferring the rank of a matrix
264 Citations1997John G. Cragg, Stephen G. Donald
The Annals of StatisticsLocal Whittle estimation in nonstationary and unit root cases
240 Citations2004Peter C.B. Phillips, Katsumi Shimotsu
Econstor (Econstor)The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting
224 Citations2002Mario Forni, Marc Hallin +2 more
This article proposes a new forecasting method that makes use of information from a large panel of time series based on a dynamic factor model that improves on a standard principal component predictor and also weights the variables according to their estimated signal-to-noise ratio.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and ControlModelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach
216 Citations2009Richard T. Baillie, Claudio Morana
NBER Macroeconomics AnnualMonetary Policy in Real Time
213 Citations2004Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin +1 more
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsTesting for Common Features
195 Citations1993Robert F. Engle, Sharon Kozicki
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsTrue or Spurious Long Memory? A New Test
189 Citations2008Arek Ohanissian, Jeffrey R Russell +1 more
The Review of Economics and StatisticsStochastic Permanent Breaks
189 Citations1999Robert F. Engle, Aaron Smith
Journal of EconometricsBreaks and persistency: macroeconomic causes of stock market volatility
172 Citations2005Andrea Beltratti, Claudio Morana
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsLong-Memory and Level Shifts in the Volatility of Stock Market Return Indices
169 Citations2009Pierre Perrón, Zhongjun Qu
Journal of Applied EconometricsPrincipal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets
169 Citations2005Carlo A. Favero, Massimiliano Marcellino +1 more
A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections
160 Citations1992Danny Quah, Thomas J. Sargent
The Annals of StatisticsBroadband log-periodogram regression of time series with long-range dependence
155 Citations1999Éric Moulines, Philippe Soulier
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsA Testing Procedure for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models With Large Datasets
149 Citations2009George Kapetanios
Journal of Financial EconometricsInequality Constraints in the Fractionally Integrated GARCH Model
138 Citations2006Christian Conrad
The Annals of StatisticsState space modeling of long-memory processes
127 Citations1998Ngai Hang Chan, Wilfredo Palma
Journal of Banking & FinanceOil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation
121 Citations2012Claudio Morana
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsNonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, With an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States
114 Citations2000Herman J. Bierens
Journal of Empirical FinanceBivariate FIGARCH and fractional cointegration
107 Citations2000Celso Brunetti, Christopher L. Gilbert
Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisSEMIFAR models—a semiparametric approach to modelling trends, long-range dependence and nonstationarity
98 Citations2002Jan Beran, Yuanhua Feng
Apparatus and method for forming a container having no longitudinal seam by passing a flatly folded continuous length of tubular material comprising a pair of oppositely positioned longitudinal folds through means for compressing said folds together while a transverse heat seal is formed at an end of said tubularmaterial perpendicularly to said folds.
Economic NotesPrincipal Component Models for Generating Large GARCH Covariance Matrices
91 Citations2002Carol Alexander
The purpose of this paper is to show that, if sufficient care is taken with the initial calibration of the model, equities and foreign exchange rates can also be included in one large covariance matrix.
Journal of Business and Economic StatisticsCo-Breaking
91 Citations2006David F. Hendry, Michael Massmann
A consistent terminology is established, theoretical results are collected, and new results in the field on the importance of co-breaking for policy analysis are presented, particularly on impulse-response functions.
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationTesting the Rank and Definiteness of Estimated Matrices with Applications to Factor, State-Space and ARMA Models
88 Citations1992Len Gill, Arthur Lewbel
RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsTesting for a unit-root with a nonlinear Fourier function
77 Citations2004Junsoo Lee, Walter Enders
Journal of Time Series AnalysisChange‐Point Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Processes
76 Citations1998Chung‐Ming Kuan, Chih‐Chiang Hsu
Journal of Empirical FinanceModeling and forecasting stock return volatility using a random level shift model
76 Citations2009Yang Lu, Pierre Perrón
SSRN Electronic JournalTracking Greenspan: systematic and unsystematic monetary policy revisited
75 Citations2002Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin +1 more
Econometric ReviewsFinite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration
69 Citations2005Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, Per Frederiksen
Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisLong memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach
58 Citations2010Davide Raggi, Silvano Bordignon
International Journal of ForecastingOn the macroeconomic causes of exchange rate volatility
53 Citations2009Claudio Morana
BernoulliLocal Polynomial Estimation with a FARIMA-GARCH Error Process
45 Citations2001Jan Beran, Yuanhua Feng
Journal of Computational and Graphical StatisticsIterative Plug-In Algorithms for SEMIFAR Models—Definition, Convergence, and Asymptotic Properties
44 Citations2002Jan Beran, Yuanhua Feng
Data-driven algorithms for fitting SEMIFAR models are proposed that combine the data-driven estimation of the nonparametric trend and maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters.
Statistics and ComputingPrincipal components analysis of nonstationary time series data
43 Citations2008Joseph Ryan G. Lansangan, Erniel B. Barrios
This work provides the range of values of λ1,j that will ensure convergence of the sparse principal components algorithm and consequently achieve sparsity of component loadings for nonstationary time series data.
Economic ModellingAdaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation
41 Citations2012Richard T. Baillie, Claudio Morana
A simple adaptive modification of the basic ARFIMA model, which uses a flexible Fourier form to allow for a time varying intercept, is suggested, which provides a good representation of various forms of structural breaks and can be efficiently estimated by a QMLE approach.
Economics LettersLong memory or structural changes: An empirical examination on inflation rates
40 Citations2005Chih-Chiang Hsu
Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisMultivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components
40 Citations2007Claudio Morana
A new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced, based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods and principal components analysis, which allows the modeling of large data sets, both in terms of temporal and cross-sectional dimensions.
Journal of EconometricsIndirect estimation of ARFIMA and VARFIMA models
38 Citations1999Vance L. Martin, Nigel Wilkins
SSRN Electronic JournalModelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure
38 Citations2008Cristina Amado, Timo Teräsvirta
Journal of Time Series AnalysisLocal Whittle estimation of the memory parameter in presence of deterministic components
36 Citations2009Fabrizio Iacone
SSRN Electronic JournalWhat is What?: A Simple Time-Domain Test of Long-Memory vs. Structural Breaks
36 Citations2005Juan J. Dolado, Jesús Gonzalo +1 more
SSRN Electronic JournalSupply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model
35 Citations2010Stéphane Dées, M. Hashem Pesaran +2 more
Journal of EconometricsRobust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series
34 Citations2010David I. Harvey, Stephen J. Leybourne +1 more
RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsBeyond the DSGE straitjacket
33 Citations2011M. Hashem Pesaran, R. Todd Smith
Economics LettersThe impulse response function of the long memory GARCH process
32 Citations2005Christian Conrad, Menelaos Karanasos
ULB Institutional RepositoryStructural change and long memory in volatility: new evidence from daily exchange rates
31 Citations2000Michel Beine, Sébastien Laurent
The Energy JournalThe Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective
30 Citations2013Claudio Morana
Research in International Business and FinanceDeterminants of US financial fragility conditions
29 Citations2012Fabio C. Bagliano, Claudio Morana
Economics LettersCotrending and the stationarity of the real interest rate
26 Citations1993David A. Chapman, Masao Ogaki
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and EconometricsModelling Autoregressive Processes with a Shifting Mean
25 Citations2008Andrés González, Timo Teräsvirta
Econometrics JournalEstimation and inference for impulse response functions from univariate strongly persistent processes
21 Citations2012Richard T. Baillie, George Kapetanios
Journal of Empirical FinanceEuro money market spreads during the 2007–? financial crisis
21 Citations2012Nuno Cassola, Claudio Morana
Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean
19 Citations2006Timo Teräsvirta, Andrés González-Gómez
Institute of Mathematical Statistics eBooksConditional-sum-of-squares estimation of models for stationary time series with long memory
18 Citations2006P. M. Robinson
SSRN Electronic JournalEconometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit
16 Citations2010M. Hashem Pesaran, Alexander Chudík
…
