Abortion and the 1978 Congressional Elections

Analysis of levels of campaign contributions, perceptions of candidates and campaign managers, election literature, and attitudes of the electorate indicate that the efforts of activists for or against legal abortion were not a major factor in the outcome of the 1978 congressional elections.

Abstract

Analysis of levels of campaign contributions, perceptions of candidates and campaign managers, election literature, and attitudes of the electorate indicate that the efforts of activists for or against legal abortion were not a major factor in the outcome of the 1978 congressional elections. Over 90% of those seeking reelection in the 1970s to the House of Representatives were successful, but in 1978 12% decided not to seek reelection, creating the major battleground for Congressional seats. Financial support by the National Abortion Rights Action League Political Action Committee and the Life Amendment Political Action Committee of congressional candidates in 1978 amounted to less than 0.2% of the total contributions of political action committees to congressional candidates in 1978. Data on specific contests suggest that contributions to individual candidates were limited. Pre- and post-election interviews with campaign managers in 86 contested races in a representative sample of 108 congressional districts and interviews with a national cross-section of adults and with voters in the same 108 districts failed to support the widely held belief that voters were strongly influenced by the candidates' position on abortion in the 1978 congressional races. The voting records on abortion of incumbents in 1978 bore little relationship to whether they were reelected. The shift toward more restrictive abortion policy in House votes following the 1978 election resulted from election of more politically conservative members to positions that had been vacated by retiring members.