A rational expectations approach to macroeconometrics: Testing policy ineffectiveness and efficient-markets models

Abstract

We investigate the relations between accruals, operating profitability, cash-based operating profitability, and the cross-section of expected stock returns in U.S. and Chinese markets. By replicating the main results in Ball et al. (2016 JFE), we confirm that cash-based operating profitability subsumes the return predictability of accruals and operating profitability in the U.S. market. Extending to the Chinese market, we similarly find that operating profitability and cash-based profitability can both predict returns but in contrast, operating profitability subsumes cash-based profitability.