The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900

Abstract

Introduction PART 1: The Development of Mathematical Statistics in Astronomy and Geodesy before 1827 1. Least Squares and the Combination of Observations Legendre in 1805 Cotes's Rule Tobias Mayer and the Libration of the Moon Saturn, Jupiter, and Enter Laplace's Rescue of the Solar System Roger Boscovich and the Figure of the Earth Laplace and the Method of Situation Legendre and the Invention of Least Squares 2. Probabilists and the Measurement of Uncertainty Jacob Bernoulli De Moivre and the Expanded Binomial Bernoulli's Failure De Moivre's Approximation De Moivre's Deficiency Simpson and Bayes Simpson's Crucial Step toward Error A Bayesian Critique 3. Inverse Probability Laplace and Inverse Probability The Choice of Means The Deduction of a Curve of Errors in 1772-1774