Analyzing the length of welfare spells

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of the length of individual spells of welfare, focusing on how the length of a spell affects the probability of its termination. The analysis utilizes six years of monthly data on time spent in the AFDC program among female household heads. A variety of duration dependence models are estimated. Monthly AFDC participation does not show strong evidence of duration dependence. Two distinct groups appear to utilize welfare: one with a very low and constant probability of leaving welfare, and a second group which is more affected by time on the program.