The use of technological forecasts in government planning

The interdependent of planning and forecasting is revealed and the distinction between “normative” and “exploratory” forecasting is critically discussed.

Abstract

In this paper technological forecasting techniques, their limitations, and problems of application are briefly out-lined. The interdependent of planning and forecasting is revealed and the distinction between "normative" and "exploratory" forecasting is critically discussed. The following types of forecasting techniques are dealt with: extrapolation techniques, analogies, simulation models, and expert surveys.