The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

The methodology used to develop the scenarios and motivations for the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project are described, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target are elaborated.

Abstract

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.