The Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP

Abstract

Recent developments in numerical modeling and computer technology will soon allow for limited-area production-type numerical weather prediction at a resolution of 1–2 km. This advance opens exciting prospects for the prediction of airflow and precipitation phenomena in and around mountainous regions, by improving the representation of the underlying topography, and by explicitly simulating (rather than parameterizing) moist convection. During the Special Observation Period (SOP; 7 Sept–15 Nov 1999) of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2) has been run in real time at a horizontal resolution of 3 km on a computational domain of 350 × 300 × 50 grid points, covering the whole of the Alpine region. An overview of the model configuration and performance will be presented along with simulation and validation results from selected MAP cases. Some critical aspects that require particular attention in future research will also be addressed.