Issues in Sales Territory Modeling and Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Analysis

Box-Jenkins models developed for each of a firm's 10 sales territories reveal that a variety of model forms are possible.

Abstract

Box-Jenkins models developed for each of a firm's 10 sales territories reveal that a variety of model forms are possible. Statistical tests are developed to consider (1) whether the same model form, with no restrictions on parameter values, is operating in each territory and (2) whether all territories having a common underlying process also have common parameter values. Adaptive forecasts are made over a 1-year period to compare unique territory model predictions with more parsimonious model predictions.