Spatial Form and Structure in a Possible Future: Some Implications of Energy Shortfall for Urban Planning

Abstract

Abstract Five alternate scenarios for future energy supply are developed, ranging from steady growth in supply to a decline to 75 percent of 1977 levels by the year 2000. These scenarios are applied to four models of spatial form and structure: present trends projected; general dispersion; concentrated super-city; and diversified-integrated cities. It is concluded that only the last form will be viable in the energy-short scenarios. Implications for social organization include strict limits on new construction and on the personal use of fuel-powered transportation, as well as the development of urban and suburban nodes as the prevailing spatial form. Planners are urged to consider the implications of the argument in developing plans for future spatial development.