Use of Structural Equation Modeling for an Attitudinal Market Segmentation Approach to Mode Choice and Ridership Forecasting

Abstract

The San Francisco Bay Area Water Transit Authority is evaluating expanded ferry service, as required by the California Legislature. As part of this process, Cambridge Systematics developed forecasts using a combination of market research strategies and the addition of nontraditional variables into the mode choice modeling process. The focus of this work was on expanding the mode choice model to recognize travelers’ attitudes and different market segments. We used structural equation modeling to simultaneously identify the attitudes of travel behaviors and the causal relationships between traveler’s socioeconomic profile and traveler attitudes. We extracted six attitudinal factors, three of which were used to partition the ferry riding market into eight segments. These market segments were used to estimate stated-preference mode choice models for 14 alternative modes, which separated the traveler’s reaction to timesavings by market segment and recognized that modal choices are different for market segments that are sensitive to travel stress or desire to help the environment. The new mode choice models were applied within the framework of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s regional travel model and calibrated to match modal shares, modes of access to each ferry terminal, ridership by route and time period, and person trips by mode at screenline crossings. Additional validation tests of significant changes in ferry service in recent years were used to confirm the reasonableness of the SP model. The model has been applied for three future year alternatives and to test the sensitivity of pricing, service changes, and alternative transit modes. WORD COUNT = 248