Market Pioneer and Early Follower Survival Risks: A Contingency Analysis of Really New versus Incrementally New Product-Markets

Abstract

Does the first entrant in a new market have a difficult time surviving or do first-mover advantages provide protection from outright failure? This empirical study of 264 new industrial product-markets yields insights into this controversial research topic. The key data analysis insights arise through a comparison of survival risks in markets that were started with a really new product and in those that were started with an incremental innovation. When a pioneer starts a new market with a really new product, it can be a major challenge just to survive. In contrast, in markets started by an incremental innovation, market pioneer survival risks are much lower. Notably, early followers have the same survival risk across both types of markets. Overall, these results indicate that in markets started by a really new product, the first to market is often the first to fail. In contrast, in markets started by an incremental innovation, it appears that first-mover advantages protect the pioneer from outright failure.