A differential equation model for predicting public opinions and behaviors from persuasive information: Application to the index of consumer sentiment

Abstract

This paper shows that ideodynamics is a differential equation model capable ofpredicting public opinions and behaviors from persuasive information. Statistics are also developed for the model. The methodology is applied to predict the time trend of public opinion about the economy as quantified by the Index of Consumer Sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan. The explanatory variables are derived from news coverage of the economy in positive and negative terms.