The Statistical Theory of Demographic Rates A Review of Current Developments

Abstract

This paper describes how, in a natural way, the occurrence/exposure appears as perhaps the most impor- tant instrument of statistical analysis in a discipline like demo- graphy. The empirical rates are interpreted as estimates of underlying theoretical transition intensities, and some of their statistical properties are sketched. The need for substituting alternative estimators for the occurrence/exposure rates in situations with incomplete information is pointed out, and a gross flow rate is given as an example. Curvefitting to sequences of, say, age-specific rates (analytic graduation) is given some attention, and the recent resurgence of interest in nonparametric methods applicable in demography and similar fields is examined.