Do digger wasps commit the concorde fallacy?

The evidence suggests that the wasp with the least prior investment is the one most likely to surrender, and some of the pitfalls of naive optimality speculations are uncovered, and analysis in terms of evolutionarily stable strategies are recommended.

Abstract

The Concorde fallacy is a notorious theoretical error which tempts economists and evolutionists alike. It amounts to investing further in a project simply because one has invested in it heavily in the past, rather than because of potential future return on investment. Digger waps, Sphex ichneumoneus, disconcertingly appear to behave as if following the Concorde fallacy. Pairs of females fight over jointly occupied nests, provisioned with paralysed katydids. The prior investment by each wasp in the nest is measured as the number of katydids that she has put into it. The true value of the nest is approximated by the total number of katydids there. The evidence suggests that the wasp with the least prior investment is the one most likely to surrender. In a post-hoc attempt at rationalizing this Concordian result, we uncover some of the pitfalls of naive optimality speculations, and recommend analysis in terms of evolutionarily stable strategies.