The Probability Approach to the Treatment of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems

Arguments are adduced to support the claim that the only satis- factory description of uncertainty is probability, and a challenge is made that anything that can be done by alternative methods for handling uncertainty can be do better by probability.

Abstract

Arguments are adduced to support the claim that the only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability. Probability is described both mathematically and interpretatively as a degree of belief. The axiomatic basis and the use of scoring rules in developing coherence are discussed. A challenge is made that anything that can be done by alternative methods for handling uncertainty can be done better by probability. This is demonstrated by some examples using fuzzy logic and belief functions. The paper concludes with a forensic example illustrating the power of probability ideas.