The quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D
R and D ManagementPublished 1 October 1975
Hans‐Horst Schröder
Citations9
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score1.78
SNIP1.99
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Abstract
Abstract Employing various measures for the quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D a detailed analysis of 4 data sets taken from different R & D organizations shows that the probability assessments roughly specify the populations to which R & D projects belong, but are extremely unreliable indicators of the eventual outcome of individual activities. Unintentional errors and conscious biases are identified as accounting for the unsatisfactory quality of subjective probabilities in R & D. Finally, some measures are suggested which might improve the quality of the probability assessments.
Keywords
Decision SciencesEngineering
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